How CS2 Case Odds Work?

You probably know how CS2 cases work. You get a case, you buy a key, then you open the case, and you get a random skin based on which case you opened. However, what are the odds of a particular skin actually coming out from a case? Well, that’s precisely what we’ll be discussing here. Keep reading to learn everything about how CS2 case odds work.

CS2 Case Odds Explained

Only five of all the rarity types for CS2 skins are a part of possible outcomes from cases. While these rarity types tell that CS2 skins from one rarity type can be lower in number compared to those from other rarity types, they don’t actually provide any measurable info that can help us gauge how rare exactly a particular rarity type is.

Fortunately, Valve has revealed the exact odds of all rarity types that determine their probability of coming out from cases. Here is a list of all the rarity types available as rewards in CS2 cases with their respective odds.

  • Mil-Spec Grade, Rare, High Grade (Darker Blue) Odds: 79.97%
  • Restricted, Mythical, Remarkable (Purple) Odds: 15.98%
  • Classified, Legendary, Exotic (Pinkish Purple) Odds: 3.2%
  • Covert, Ancient, Extraordinary (Red) Odds: 0.64%
  • Exceedingly Rare, Rare Special (Gold) Odds: 0.26%

As you can see from the odds of each rarity tier, Mil-Spec skins are the easiest to acquire. Restricted are a bit rarer. But landing on one while opening a CS2 case would be relatively easy. Players often receive both rarity types after opening a few cases.

After that, we have the Classified skins, which don’t come out as often. Finally, both the Covert and Exceedingly Rare skins are extremely difficult to get, and you’d have to be really lucky to land on one within your first few tries of opening CS2 cases.

A common misconception CS2 players have about the odds for CS2 cases is that the probability of a rarer skin becomes higher once you open a few cases. However, that’s not how the odds of CS2 cases work.

Each case opening in CS2 is a separate event. The probability of getting a particular rarity type does not change based on previous case openings. In other words, let’s say you have opened 97 cases. The odds of you getting a Classified skin from the very next case opening don’t dramatically go up to around 100%. In fact, they stay at 3.2%.

Odds of StatTrak Skins from CS2 Cases

Besides rarity tiers, there is another quality of CS2 skins called StatTrak. StatTrak skins are variants of regular skins with a digital kill tracker attached to the side of the weapon that tracks the number of kills the owner got with that weapon. Besides that, the weapon is completely the same as its regular counterpart.

However, because of the kill tracker, the StatTrak variants of skins are much more desirable and expensive than their regular versions. Consequently, the probability of getting a StatTrak weapon skin is low. The exact odds of getting a StatTrak variant is 1 in 10. In other words, whichever weapon skin you get from the case, there is a 10% chance that it will be a StatTrak version.

CS2 Case Odds and ROI

While all those odds tell you the probability of a particular type of weapon skin coming out from a case, they don’t tell you whether opening a case is worth it. You might receive certain skins high on the rarity tier list, but they don’t necessarily have to be of the same value as other skins on the same rarity tier. That’s because the price of a particular skin is also highly affected by its design and visual appeal.

In other words, opening certain cases will get you a much higher return on average compared to other cases. The average value extracted from opening particular CS2 cases is represented by ROI or return on investment. Let’s say a case costs $5, including the key to open it, and its ROI is 50%. Now, let’s say you spend $100 opening 20 of those cases. At the end of it all, you’ll have $50 worth of CS2 skins.

There are several resources on the internet that have calculated the ROI for almost every case. We won’t bore you with how they calculate the ROI. All you need to know is that it involves tons of calculations based on the odds and prices of skins in that case. However, keep in mind that the ROI value is an average, and you won’t necessarily end up with the exact or even similar ROI after opening just 20 or even 50 cases.

Odds for Custom Cases at Case Case-Opening Sites

Besides the cases within CS2, you can also open custom cases from third-party case-opening sites. Unfortunately, we can’t give you exact numbers on the odds of these custom cases. That’s because the odds vary for each case and each platform. Plus, some platforms also allow you to create your own custom cases, even with all super expensive skins. Odds for those cases would be drastically different from regular custom cases.

Fortunately, the odds at custom case-opening sites are usually much better than those from regular CS2 cases. It is also one of the main reasons many CS2 players have shifted from opening CS2 cases to third-party case opening sites. Plus, all of these third-party sites, at least the legit ones, use random number generators to generate an outcome that guarantees fair play.

However, you can also get scammed if you end up on the wrong platform. Fear not. We have thoroughly examined almost all popular case-opening platforms and filtered out all the scam sites. Check out our list of the best CS2 case opening sites with a guarantee of zero scams.


While they were previously hidden from gamers, Valve revealed the odds that represent the probability of a particular rarity type skin coming out from a case. Before deciding to open a CS2 case, keep these odds and the ROI in mind so you have a general idea of what you are getting into.

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